Author Archives: Philip

Cusco Plans Inti Raymi in 2021

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Diario Correo is reporting today that Cusco authorities are making preparations for the Inti Raymi.

The Municipal Company of Festivities of Cusco (Emufec) confirmed to Correo that the ceremony will take place this year and that tickets will go on sale on April 1st.

Frenando Santoyo, President of the board of Emufec, said that they held an extended meeting in which they decided to go ahead with this year’s preparations. They will make another evaluation in March and another one in May to adjust the preparations according to how the COVID-19 pandemic is going in the country.

“We are five months away from the Inti Raymi, and so far the State has indicated that this type of shows are already allowed, of course, with a limited capacity and respecting all the protocols and biosecurity procedures,” said Santoyo.

Due to the current situation, the number of seats available to attend the Inti Raymi during the main ceremony in the esplanade of Sacsayhuaman, will be limited this year, allowing a capacity of 60%.

“We are betting on domestic tourism, national visitors, so there will be no increase in the cost of tickets, even though only 60% of the total capacity will be sold. About a reduction in the price of the tickets, it is a possibility that will be seen later,” said Santoyo.

In addition to live activities, the Inti Raymi will also be broadcast through social media and other interactive platforms.

The Inti Raymi or the Festival of the Sun, is a ceremony of the Inca court which was begun in Cusco in 1944 and had been carried out uninterruptedly until last year when it had to be suspended due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Ticket prices will run from US $60 to US 160.



Second COVID-19 Wave Devastating Peru

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[All data presented is up-to-date through January 15, the most recent published by the Ministry of Health (Minsa).]

The effects of the Christmas and News Year’s holidays are now clear and perhaps are worse than expected across the country.

With hospitalizations soaring and ICU units across the country full or nearly full, the final indicator of just how bad things are after the holidays — deaths — is making it clear that this is an extremely serious situation.

The past three days has seen 91, 90, and 116 deaths reported. The rolling 7-day average started to shoot up around January 4 and has risen nearly 30 a day in barely a week and a half. Expect it to climb much more more over the next few weeks.


Hospitalizations have nearly doubled since Christmas.


The number of people being treated under ICU care doesn’t appear to be rising as rapidly, but likely that is due to the fact that there simply are very few ICU beds available across the country.


The positivity rate of testing continues to rise as well. The recent dip was a result of an unexplained one-day drop, but the overall trend is undeniable as the most reliable indicator of just how much COVID-19 is again spreading across the country.


For those who still aren’t sure that using masks make a difference, you might want to check up on the science and to learn that it is crystal clear that masks make a difference:

Mask Wearing and COVID-19





Mask Wearing and COVID-19

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One of the hardest things to read every day are the social media assertions by people claiming that there is no scientific consensus on the effects of mask wearing in the fight against the spread of COVID-19.

There are few things that anger me more because they are simply spreading lies with zero scientific basis which result in people dying.

It amazes me how some people like to exhibit indescribable stupidity by citing YouTube videos or extreme right-wing websites designed to make money off of the ignorant instead of spreading knowledge. The closest I’ve seen is one person who cited a CDC video that was over ten months old on a position that has long since been corrected based on real research.

This is a partial listing of real, verifiable scientific research done by real scientists, doctors, and epidemiologists to counter the claims of those who got think their self-conferred Ph.D. degrees from the “University of Social Media” are legitimate.



An evidence review of face masks against COVID-19

COVID-19: How Much Protection Do Face Masks Offer

Masks and Face Coverings for the Lay Public

Face masks to prevent transmission of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Evaluation of Cloth Masks and Modified Procedure Masks as Personal Protective Equipment for the Public During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Face covering adherence is positively associated with better mental health and wellbeing: a longitudinal analysis of the CovidLife surveys

Face coverings and respiratory tract droplet dispersion

HMS Study Finds Mask-Wearing, Social Distancing Reduce Covid-19 Infections by 87% on College Campuses

Can face masks offer protection from airborne sneeze and cough droplets in close-up, face-to-face human interactions?—A quantitative study

Face Masks Against COVID-19: An Evidence Review

Visualizing Speech-Generated Oral Fluid Droplets with Laser Light Scattering

Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks

Community Use Of Face Masks And COVID-19: Evidence From A Natural Experiment Of State Mandates In The US

Association of country-wide coronavirus mortality with demographics, testing, lockdowns, and public wearing of masks (Update June 15, 2020)

Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations

How misinformation is distorting COVID policies and behaviors



New COVID Measures Go Into Effect Tomorrow

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Yesterday’s announcement of measures being taken to attack the huge rise in COVID infections across Peru was done in a very haphazard and seemingly unplanned way so I decided it was necessary to present the announcements in a clearer, more organized way based on information published by the office of the President very late last night.

These measures go into effect tomorrow (Friday, January 15) through January 31, but will be evaluated every two weeks to see if changes need to be made.

The country’s regions were separated into three different levels: moderate, high, and very high levels of concern.

[Note: The official decree has yet to be published so it is possible that there might be some alterations before tomorrow.]

Moderate Level

Regions: Amazonas, Ayacucho, Huancavelica, Loreto, San Martín, Ucayali

Curfew hours: 11 pm to 4 am

Gyms, Theaters, Casinos, etc. – maximum 40% capacity
Commercial stores – maximum 50% capacity
Restaurants – maximum 60% capacity
Churches – maximum 30% capacity

High Level

Regions: Arequipa, Apurimac, Cajamarca, Callao, Metro Lima, Cusco, Huánuco, La Libertad, Madre de Dios, Moquegua, Pasco, Puno, Tumbes

Curfew Hours: 9 pm to 4 am

Gyms, Theaters, Casinos, etc. – maximum 30% capacity
Commercial stores – maximum 40% capacity
Restaurants – maximum 50% capacity
Churches – maximum 20% capacity

No use of private cars allowed on Sundays.

Very High Level

Regions: Ancash, Ica, Junín, Lambayeque, Lima Provinces, Piura, Tacna

Curfew Hours: 7 pm to 4 am

Gyms, Theaters, Casinos, etc. – maximum 20% capacity
Commercial stores – maximum 30% capacity
Restaurants – maximum 40% capacity
Churches – maximum 10% capacity

Sundays are under a complete curfew.

Other Measures Announced

Beaches will remain closed.

Flights from Europe will continue to be restricted.

All international arrivals still are required to quarantine for 14-days upon arrival, but may take COVID test on the sixth day of quarantine. If it comes back negative, they will be released from quarantine requirements.

All international arrivals must present a negative PCR COVID test upon entering the country.



Peruvian Government Announces New Anti-COVID Measures

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Sagasti

This afternoon President Francisco Sagasti addressed the nation in response to rapidly rising COVID-19 infections across the country and announced new measures seeking to slow the spread.

Sagasti opened his address by saying, “We are at the beginning of a second wave, we need to communicate the first measures in this regard.

“Since March of last year we have seen how we have lowered the R level by about one, ” he continued. “However, in the first days of this month we have seen a slight upturn…We have seen an increase in the evolution of hospitalized people. We are as we were in July last year.”

“If we look at the evolution of the use of ICU beds,” he said, “we see an equally worrying situation, but one that is more accentuated. As of January 11, 87% of the ICU beds in the country had been occupied. And since the end and middle of November this figure has gradually increased.

“In this situation, what have we decided to do? First, we define a decision criterion, which we begin to learn from the experience we have had…We follow in great detail what happens in other countries.

“Another thing we could see is the enormous difficulty countries have in getting vaccines. The logistics involved in vaccinating millions of people have challenged the capacity of Canada, England, the U.S.

“We already know that the English variant is in the country. Let’s hope it’s not too widespread.

“Unlike developed countries, Peruvians who have been infected are over 40%.

“Economic fragility is another thing we have to take into account.

“The way the pandemic has struck has been different in every region…We have to be prepared to respond to the situation in each region and depending on that go from moderate to high or vice versa.

“There is a set of measures that is permanent at all times and in all places and these are personal care measures: use of a mask, continuous hand washing and the use of small alcohol dispensers; physical distancing and avoiding closed spaces and, of course, avoiding crowds.

“We don’t want to go to an extreme level. We want to avoid a strict quarantine for everyone. That’s why we’re gradually seeing what we need to do in these warning measures.

“Every 15 days at the most we will evaluate the measures according to each region.

“We are at the beginning of this second wave and it is up to us and our compliance with the measures to reduce the slope of contagion, hospitalization and ICU beds.”

The Prime Minister, Violeta Bermúdez, emphasized the measures that have always been in effect — use of mask, distance and hand washing. She also mentioned the control of public transport capacity. In addition, she said that all types of activities that cause crowding will be sanctioned.

“Within the measures linked to physical isolation,” said Bermúdez, “one measure is to promote remote work in both the public and private sectors. All those workers invoke to continue as far as possible with the remote work…Regarding the use of beaches, we have agreed that the use of beaches will continue until January 31st in a restricted manner.”

The Minister of Education, Ricardo Cuenta, announced that “In Áncash, Ica, Junín Lambayeque, Lima Provinces, Piura and Tacna we will have vehicle and pedestrian restrictions on Sundays.“

The Minister of Production, José Luis Chicoma, announced that “[in] the restaurants in the regions with very high alert, the capacity will be 40%…We ask local governments and customers to control the licenses. There are a lot of licensed restaurants that are operating as bars and nightclubs.”

President Sagasti then spoke about the delivery of vaccines by noting that “In the negotiation and delivery processes they are quite complicated. The commitment we have with Sinopharm is that this will arrive before the end of January…We are waiting for the final delivery date.”

“We are confident that the first million vaccines will arrive before the end of the month,” he continued. “While that happens, the whole logistics and vaccination team is working.”

New curfew hours were announced:

  • For regions with moderate risk, it will be from 11:00 p.m. to 4 a.m.
  • For high risk departments, it will be from 9:00 p.m. to 4:00 a.m.
  • For very high risk it will be from 7:00 p.m. to 4 a.m.

Richard Cuenca presented this summary of the new measures to be enacted on January 15:

Regions on very high alert (Piura, Lambayeque, Ancash, Lima Provinces , Junin, Ica and Tacna) – restriction of pedestrian and vehicular traffic on Sundays and curfew from 7 p.m. to 4 a.m.

Regions on high alert (Tumbes, Cajamarca, La Libertad, Huanuco, Pasco, Cusco, Apurimac, Arequipa, Madre de Dios, Puno, Moquegua and Metropolitan Lima) – traffic restriction on Sundays and curfew from 9 p.m. to 4 a.m.

Regions on moderate alert (Loreto, Amazonas, San Martin, Huancavelica and Ayacucho) — restaurant capacity is 60% and curfew from 11 p.m. to 4 a.m.

The Council of Ministers announced that arriving international travelers may take COVID test on the sixth day of quarantine. If it comes back negative, they will be released from quarantine requirements.


[I apologize for this being a little cluttered. I have been working on this as the announced were being made. They Cabinet tended to jump around a little and some of the material was presented on a chart in which I had to find details once the announcements were completed a few minutes ago.]



COVID-19 in Peru is Starting to Look Very Bad Again

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All along I’ve said that we would be seeing the results of the holidays on COVID-19 data by the second week of January. Sadly, those results are showing up now and COVID-19 appears to making a massive comeback in Peru as previous incremental increases have rapidly become exponential increases based on data from the Ministry of Health (Minsa).

The leading indicator is the positivity rate which has shot up drastically just in in the past few days, but has shown a steady increase of about 50% since Christmas.

Here’s how the positivity rate of testing has gone up and down since the near start of the pandemic:

(click on the graphic to see a larger size)


This chart shows how it has risen since Christmas:

(click on the graphic to see a larger size)

Hospitalizations have also risen an astounding rate since Christmas:

(click on the graphic to see a larger size)

The number of people being treated in ICU care has also been going up, though recent reports indicate that this may be flattening simply because the number of available ICU beds is nearly full.


While the number of daily deaths has climbed only slightly, it is considered a “trailing indicator” and likely will begin to increase soon.

Anecdotal stories of large portions of the country ignoring mask earing and social distancing laws is especially frightening. I’ve seen lots of videos posted by friends in some places — particularly Iquitos — showing an almost complete disregard for masks.

One expat from the Iquitos area publicly asked “Does anyone else find themselves smoking more in public so you don’t have to wear these stupid masks.”

A couple of days ago I did a two hour walk around the southern part of town. I only saw two people not wearing masks out of probably thousands I passed on the street. One was a mentally disabled man who is well known around town.

The other was a worker in a coffee shop near the Plaza Real mall. He simply didn’t seem to care about it at all. This is the only time in months that I’ve found any employee anywhere not wearing a mask. He didn’t have it below his chin or apparently laying around where he set it down for a moment for some reason. He didn’t care.

I bought a couple of bread items then, after I walked out, thought about it and threw everything in the trash before heading straight for a store to buy alcohol to clean my hands. That was 5 soles down the drain.

Fortunately in Cusco, most people still wear masks. In the center and in the major areas of town mask wearing is still almost universal. It’s still rare to enter any business without having our hands sprayed with alcohol and most still check your temperature on the spot.

The Minister of Health, Pilar Mazzetti, said yesterday that “Our situation can change at any time. Indeed, we are already changing, at this time the health system is receiving more patients. We are moving from a resurgence to a time when the number of cases is already rising faster, we are in a second wave.”

“We are in a situation of uncertainty. It is hard, but we have to be clear,” she said referring to the possibility of returning to a mandatory quarantine.






Work on Chinchero Airport Set to Resume in June

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Major work will begin on the controversial new Chinchero International Airport (AICC) in June, but El Comercio reports that no environmental study has been done.

The government has a “short list” of bidders interested in building the Cusco air terminal by 2025. Earthworks will be tendered – starting in February – for an amount of US$145 million. However, the MTC does not yet have the EIP required by UNESCO in view of possible effects on Machu Picchu and Qhapaq Ñan.

A South Korean consortium including Dowha Engineering is in charge of Chinchero’s PMO, an office that, since November, 2019, and after signing a government-to-government contract, provides technical assistance to Peru for the construction and operation of the airport.

Kyo Keun Kwon, Executive Director of Dohwa Engineering, recently showed the preliminary design of the AICC that will be built on a 446-hectare site (with a 4,000-meter-long runway and 13 aircraft parking positions).

Kwon explained that phases 1 and 2 of the project were to be completed by January 2021, involving the revision of the final engineering study (EDI) and its conversion into a technical file for the bidding process, as well as the management of the bids for the execution and supervision of the works.

  • The landing strip in Chinchero will be 4,000 meters long.
  • The AICC will have 13 aircraft parking positions
  • Main facade of the air terminal in Chinchero.
  • Control tower of the future Chinchero airport.


The Ministry of Transport and Communications (MTC) told El Comercio that the construction schedule had been modified. Stage 1 of the preliminary work (earthwork for 90% of the project area) will begin in February. Stage 2 (construction of the air terminal and landing strip) will begin in June.

According to the MTC “the signing of the contract [for earthwork] is foreseen for January 2021…the referential value of the work, this amounts to approximately US$145 million, not including IGV.”

According to Dohwa, the work will extend until September 2024 (end of phase 3) and then the airport will be put into operation by June 2025 (phase 4).

In July 2018, UNESCO sent a letter to the Peruvian government to request a heritage impact study (EIP) of the project in Chinchero, which established the possible damage that the future airport would cause to three properties listed as world heritage: the Historical Sanctuary of Machu Picchu, the Qhapaq Ñan (Andean road system) and the city of Cusco. The deadline was August of that year, but the Ministry of Culture (Mincul) responded in September that it required an extension to prepare a “broad study”; it also advanced that through the archaeological evaluation (PEA) and permanent monitoring (PMA) projects “no cultural evidence was found” in the field.

In February 2020 El Comercioreports that they gained access to the two EIPs that the MTC commissioned to measure the possible impact on Machu Picchu and the Qhapaq Ñan.

Between the two documents, up to 60 impacts were identified on the two archaeological sites. Of that total, 39 were classified as negative and 65% would generate some type of impact on heritage.

In the case of the Machu Picchu, it was determined that there could be an “accelerated wear” of the earthen floors, as well as the “deterioration of the lithic surface” by the action of the visitors and tourists who would arrive thanks to the airport.

After that, the MTC announced that it had sent the two EIPs to the Mininstry of Culture for analysis and evaluation. In addition, they explained that they were already coordinating with the Mincul and the PMO to develop terms of reference (TOR), in order to hire “international experts who will be in charge of the development” of a conclusive EIP to be submitted to UNESCO. The TORs were supposed to be ready in March 2020, but with the arrival of the pandemic there was no progress.

Consulted about the final EIP that should be sent to UNESCO, the MTC said that this document was already commissioned to the PMO last December for an amount of US$780,000, although they did not specify when it will be completed and submitted. According to El Comercio, when the ministry was asked why works were being tendered in Chinchero without the results of the EIP or the approval of UNESCO, there was no answer.

Jose Hayakawa, president of Icomos Peru, considered that starting any work in Chinchero, when the EIP has not yet been put under consideration by UNESCO, “is nonsense” and “a decision without technical support”. “For this project it is necessary to look at the heritage not only as vestiges, but also the natural environment, the cultural landscape. Any intervention linked to the AICC has a direct or indirect impact on Machu Picchu, the Qhapaq Ñan and the city of Cusco because it encourages the arrival of more people. That is why a detailed study is required, which does not exist today,” he said.

The district mayor of Chinchero, Hector Cusicuna, the airport project is a wish of his people that must be realized by the government of Francisco Sagasti and the incoming one, since it represents a possibility of development. He added that the campesino communities in his jurisdiction have renewed their directives, and these have reaffirmed their commitment to support the construction of the AICC.

“We met with the South Korean PMO in the first days of December. Representatives from the MTC, Minedu and Housing also participated. They indicated that a road ring will be built around the airport thanks to Provías Nacional and Decentralized; while there are proposals to improve the educational infrastructure with Pronied, as well as the sanitation of the population center. We do not know what the EIP is about, but the bidding process for the movement of land is about to conclude. We have been told that the two finalists are RCC and Hyundai [of the Chinchero Consortium],” Cusicuna explained.




Walking Through Cusco Above Huancaro

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One thing I really want to do this year is not only spend more time sharing my explorations of the cool Inca and pre-Inca sites that I visit off the beaten path, but also show what life in Cusco (and Peru) is really like away from the tourist trail.

Most people come and go and leave with no idea what Peru is really like for the normal person who lives here. I even know a lot of expats who live here and spend very little time with local people.

So I’m trying to learn how to make little videos about every day life. Yesterday I went for walk that ended up taking me about 15 km (over 9 miles) up above Cusco.

It’s a simple video, but it’s a start. I plan to start showing more things relative to every day life as I progress and get better.

Please feel free to share your criticisms and suggestions. I want to improve.

And please hit the subscribe button so you’ll get notification when new videos are published. I promise they’ll get better!





COVID Data in Peru Shows Alarming Trends

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While I had been reporting on data trends about twice a month, the anticipated effects of Christmas and New Year’s holidays require a more regular approach to reporting.

After the first week of data has now been released by the Ministry of Health (Minsa), the trends are revealing exactly what was predicted by everyone.

It takes about 2 weeks afer the start of the holidays to begin to see the effects. That time is here as Christmas was two weeks earlier and the data relating to New Year’s is not even clear yet.

Things are not going in a good direction for the country.

The most telling statistic is the positivity rate of testing. A 7-day rolling average provides a smoothing of the data and allows trends to be easily seen across time.

This data reveals a significant rise in testing positivity. A few days there was an remarkably (and unexplained) dip in the rate or the rend would be even more obvious. That will become even more clear in a few days.


So far, January is the first month in a long, long time that the number of known cases is actually increasing.

The number of COVID hospitalizations and people in ICU care for COVID have been steadily increasing since the start of December and the numbers are starting to rise even more as we’ve reached two weeks after the start of the holidays.



The most frightening indicator of a problem is deaths. This is known as a trailing indicator — meaning the effects are generally seen even later than others.

Peru is averaging just over 60 deaths a day this month — a number that is rising. On January 7 (the most recent day reported), the number of COVID related deaths was 96 — the highest one-day total in 3 1/2 months!

I live in Cusco where there is still a significant amount of adherence to mask wearing and social distancing procedures, but after a lengthy walk through several lower income neighborhoods yesterday I noticed that the amount of compliance was much lower.

In the tourist areas and the central corridor mask wearing is still close to 100%, but in the areas I visited yesterday that number dropped to an estimated 80-85%. That’s still far higher than some countries like the United States, but nowhere near where it needs to be to effectively combat COVID-19 — especially with the likely appearance of the more contagios mutations which are probably already here.

I’ve heard anecdotal stories of other regions having minimal compliance. Photos shared by media and friends from all over Peru indicates some regions are basically ignoring mask wearing.



PeruRail Drops Prices for Cusco Residents to Machu Picchu

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La Republica reported this morning that PeruRail approved a promotional rate for Cusco tourists in its Expedition service cars. There are six frequencies (3 outbound and 3 return) on the Ollantaytambo – Machupicchu section whose prices range between US$ 13-16 round trip (48-59 soles).

From the Machupicchu Hydroelectric station to Machupicchu Pueblo the rate is set for Cusqueños at US$ 4 (15 soles).

In both cases the promotion will be available for travel from January to March 31, 2021. Depending on the company, changes or modifications will be allowed to travel until December 20, 2021 at the same frequency.

The offer is only valid for face-to-face purchases and only at the points of sale in Lima and Cusco. The passenger must carry his ID card when purchasing the ticket.

However, the train service provided by the company does affect domestic tourists. On Thursday night, a group of forty visitors protested at the Machupicchu train station and prevented the departure of trains to Ollantaytambo.

The complaint is that, according to the tourists, the company did not want to sell them tickets for the local train, even though the seats on the train were almost empty.

It should be noted that this service only costs S / 12.00 each way. The company’s intention would be for Peruvians to use the service on tourist trains that cost as little as US$30 each way.

PeruRail manages about 70% of the rail traffic to and from Machu Picchu.



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