Category Archives: Coronavirus

Late last night Peru’s government extended the State of Emergency for 30 days.

This Decree notes that exercise of the constitutional rights related to personal freedom and security, the inviolability of the home and the freedom of assembly and transit in the territory will be restricted. It also states that the National Police and the Armed Forces “shall ensure unrestricted compliance with the provisions issued within the framework of the state of national emergency.”

The Regional Alert Level Designations that expired last night at midnight were extended through Sunday, September 5 through Supreme Decree Nº 149-2021-PCM with the changes listed in the table at the bottom.

This decree also stipulates that the Ministry of Health must present a new set of proposed measures to the Council of Ministers within ten days.

Yesterday afternoon the Minister of Health, Hernando Cevallos, said that the current restrictions would be extended only for five days and new announcements would be coming this week. [The disconnect within the administration could not be more clear.]

Yesterday, while visiting the vaccination center of Campo de Marte, in Jesús María, Cevallos said, “It is that the epidemiological situation of the country needs to be analyzed very carefully. The evidence that the delta variant is advancing, as we know. The last report has shown an increase of delta cases in the country, then it needs to be analyzed.”

Apparently the administration has not been analyzing this data since coming into office as mountains of detailed data has been available for over 17 months and updated every day.

As of 8 am this morning, neither the Council of Ministers or the Ministry of Health has released any official press announcements on their websites or through their official Twitter accounts continuing the silence and lack of transparency about what is going on.

There is also very little press coverage of this announcement so far this morning as it was officially published very, very late. Some of the press coverage seems to be contradictory, too, which is not helping. When there are any new announcements or clarifications, I’ll update this post and note it through my Twitter account. (@ExploreCusco).

UPDATE: After looking closer at the Decree, it appears that Alert Levels have, in fact, been changed for provinces across the country.

As of 9:45 this morning the administration still remains silent with no press conference and no communications.

The biggest news of the week is that the alert levels that we’ve lived with for almost a year and a half expire a midnight tonight with no announcements having been made from the Castillo administration.

In the past, announcements had been made about new restrictions and alert level designations during the week preceding expiration. So far, there has been nothing but silence from the President, the Prime Minister, the Council of Ministers, and the Ministry of Health with the current designations set to expire in 11 hours from the time I’m writing this.

Most of Peruvian press is starting to report this afternoon that there is no new guidance on things like curfews, restrictions on vehicles, transportation, etc., after midnight tonight.

Did President Castillo and Prime Minister Bellido forget there’s a pandemic? I’m at a loss for words at this point.

UPDATE: El Comercio is reporting that the current restrictions will be extended officially for five days with a Decree sometime today followed by an announcement in the coming days. I’ll update first on Twitter (see below) and then here as soon as more is known.

[NOTE: I post a lot more news on all things Peru through Twitter @ExploreCusco. It’s a lot faster and easier to share there.]

Through seventeen months of the COVID pandemic in Peru, the country (and the world) has endured changes unlike anything that has been experienced in our lifetime.

Seventeen months of off and on lockdowns, closed international land borders, constantly changing restrictions on travel, and universal mask requirements have become part of life here. While the measures have sometimes been seeming illogical, the overall effectiveness of the government’s science-based policies and actions in a situation that no one was prepared for have largely been successful. This stands in stark contrast to the anti-mask, anti-vaccine mostly foreign contingent who spread misinformation based on YouTube videos and social media posts shared by uneducated people who are making money off the ignorance of others. They contribute to the deaths of people who don’t have to die, yet they continue even as write this and I fully expect more trolling from them.

The data reported by Peru’s Ministry of Health (Minsa) is clear about how things are improving. While I haven’t been to those places where compliance was an issue a year or more ago resulting in tremendous hardship, I have seen that nearly everyone in Cusco and parts of Lima (including some rougher neighborhoods) are seeing near universal compliance with mask wearing with vaccines being applied as fast as they become available. (A great many tourists in Cusco continue to ignore the law and disrespect Peru and Peruvians.)

POSITIVITY RATES OF COVID TESTING

The best measure of how COVID is spreading across the country is not the number of cases. (That number is based solely on the amount of testing.) The best way to view how prevalent the virus is across Peru is by looking at how many people are found to be positive after being tested.

The best way to understand positivity rates is to think of testing as throwing a fishing net into a lake. The positivity rate (%) tells you how many trout you pull in with each throw. If the percentage is high, then that indicates there’s a lot of trout in the lake. If it’s low, then there’s likely few trout there.

Peru has seen the positivity rate over the past 8 days drop below 3% — one of the lowest rates in the world. (The latest number for the US was 11.5% despite availability for everyone in the country over 11 to be vaccinated. In the state of Texas, where I’m from, that number is 18.3%.)

All of this comes despite the presence of the more virulent Delta variant in the country for more than two months.

COVID HOSPITALIZATIONS

While there has been a very slight rise in COVID hospitalizations in recent days, the steady decline for months has been solid and corresponds exactly to the vaccination program advances beginning with the oldest Peruvians months ago. (These are those most likely to endure the most serious symptoms of COVID.)

After a long time of hospital ICU units operating at almost full capacity, the number of people in ICU units is also seeing a slow, but very steady decline. These are the people who generally suffer from the most devastating long-term challenges so the speed of the drop in cases is not a surprise. The good thing is that is a continual decline.

COVID-RELATED DEATHS

Another area of great improvement has been the number of COVID-related deaths. This number has dropped precipitously indicating many lives being saved. The decline, as that of every other data category, corresponds perfectly with the application of vaccines across Peru.

Compared to the frightening high number of daily deaths just four months ago, this drop is extremely welcome news as far fewer families are losing loved ones.

COVID IN CUSCO

Things are also improving where I live in Cusco. The lack of enforcement of mask rules by police in the region against tourists and foreign residents who arrogantly flaunt their disrespect is hugely disappointing, but I have seen a little more push back on Peruvian social media and local news. A larger police presence has clearly been visible in recent days in the central historical district, but that could also be in response to the growing political unrest.

While the positivity rate of COVID testing in the Cusco region is quite high compared to the rest of Peru, the likely explanation comes from the low number of tests being performed. I have a strong feeling that most tests are being performed on people who have been in contact with those who been found to be infected — primarily family members. If that is the case, then this number is actually surprisingly low.

Good indicators of how COVID is affecting the region less and less are the steady drops in hospitalizations and deaths. Even if the region has a relatively high rate of transmission, it’s also likely that the aggressively successful program of vaccinating those most likely to suffer from the extreme effects of the virus is working.

The number of deaths each day is so low now — 2.0 per day — that it is almost negligible compared to other causes of death in the region of 1.2 million people.

[As I write this morning, last night’s data indicates that the positivity rate continues to drop to 12.2%.]

WHAT LIES AHEAD?

The number of vaccines continue to enter Peru where they are distributed at an ever-increasing rate which bodes well for the country in the future.

The concern, of course, is the growing prevalence of the Delta variant which, despite being in the country for over two months, doesn’t appear to be having near the effect that it is having in countries like the United States. Again, this is probably because Peru is getting vaccinated as quickly as possible while tens of millions in the US have decided not to protect themselves, their families, or anyone else because of misinformation.

Last night Minsa, through the National Institute of Health (INS), reported 31 new cases of the Delta variant in Lima. The number of known cases through Peru has risen to 105. Minsa said that these Delta variant cases have been found in the regions of Arequipa (7), Lima (39), Ica (14), Pasco (10), Junín (16), Apurímac (1), Huancavelica (1), Ayacucho (1) and Callao (16).

Considering the drastically increased potential for the spread of this variant, these numbers are surprisingly low.

More concerning is that, as the majority of the world remains unvaccinated, the potential for new and possibly more virulent and deadly variants increases each day.

As for now, Peru is making very solid improvements and the future looks much improved as long as vaccines continue to be applied to more and more people.

[Now I’ll wait for all the trolls with Ph.D. degrees from the University of YouTube and Social Media to do what they do!]

Good and bad trends are happening in Peru right now.

The bad news is that positivity rates of testing are climbing quickly over the past week. Daily percentages are still far lower than just a few weeks ago and the last two days have seen a slight decrease so hopefully this is just a short blip.

The good news is that COVID hospitalizations just dropped below 5000 for the first time this year and daily deaths remain low. (The number of people in ICU units also continues to drop nearly every day.) Still hospitalizations and deaths are trailing indicators meaning it’s possible that they will rise soon, too.

One strong likelihood is that Peru may finally be seeing the effects of the spread of the Delta variant which was first discovered here months ago, but the rapidly growing prevalence of vaccinations (especially among the elderly) may keep be keeping more people alive and out of hospitals exactly as they are expected to work.

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People aged 40-49 in the Cusco province will be able to receive their second dose of COVID vaccine this weekend according to the following schedule. (Be sure to click on the graphic to see a larger version.)

Cusco’s local health director, Juan Alberto Spelucin, also announced yesterday that vaccinations for people 30-30 will begin in 15 days.

Vaccinations for everyone 18 years of age and older are being carried out now in some remote areas.

Peru’s Council of MInisters decided to update the country’s alert levels before the current levels a week early. The new alert designations and restrictions go into effect on Monday, July 26. Looking over them, it appears that there are no major changes coming though more provinces were raised to the Very High Risk Level designation.

The new restrictions are scheduled to be in effect through August 22.

(Click on each individual chart to see a larger version.)

As the number of vaccinations administered in Peru continue to increase at an accelerating rate, all data released from Peru’s Ministry of Health indicates significant improvement in all areas including the number of people hospitalized in ICU units which for a long time was a stubborn indicator as units across the country were full for many months.

Vaccinations

As of yesterday, over 3.8 million people have received two doses of COVID-19 vaccines with an additional 6.4 million who have so far received their first dose.

I won’t waste any more time commenting on the anti-vaccine expat crowd who have only succeeding in killing more people who do not have to die. Vaccine effectiveness is a scientific fact at this point and the results of increasing vaccination number on Peru (and all around the world) is simply undeniable at this point. Fortunately, Peruvians are nearly universal in their desire to get vaccinated.

Vaccinations for people in their 40s have now begun in many parts of the country which will results in massive increases in the percentage of protected people. It was only two months ago when I was concerned that people in their 60s might just now be getting their shots. Peru is finally exceeding expectations.

Positivity Rates of Testing

It’s been two months since the Delta variant was first detected in Arequipa followed by detection in the Lima area. Despite the highly transmissibility of this variant, the percentage of people testing positive continues a steady drop to rates that have been unheard of since the earliest days of the pandemic in March, 2020. The Peruvian government has apparently done a good job of walling off the spread of this variant so far.

In the past week, only 4.25% of people tested in Peru have been positive for COVID. (The number of people tested has actually increased a bit, too.) That number is fantastic and continues a very steady downward trend.

Hospitalizations

The number of people in hospitals for COVID-19 just dropped below 8000 for the first time in over six months! Also, the number of people hospitalized in ICU units continues to go down. (This is perhaps the indicator that lags the most as it usually takes a long time for people to be released, if they survive at all.)

COVID Deaths

The number of COVID-related deaths in Peru has plummeted in the past two months. Again, this is not a surprise as the group most likely to succumb is the elderly and those with immunocompromised conditions — groups which have been targeted by vaccination efforts.

Peru has averaged 76.1 COVID deaths a day so far during July, with that number dropping to 65 over the past week. Keep in mind that April saw an average of 321 deaths a day while May — just a few weeks ago — averaged 260 deaths a day.

Vaccinations Schedule

Peru’s Ministry of Health has released a tentative schedule for vaccination for each age group for the rest of the year putting it in a position to become a leader in vaccinations across the world.

COVID in Cusco

After a period of very worrying numbers, Cusco — where I live — is also seeing very good numbers based on data from the Regional Health Directorate (Diresa). With vaccinations of people over 40 beginning today in the Cusco province, positivity rates of testing continues to drop and the number of deaths per day has decreased to very low numbers across the region.

Cusco will carry out the next phase of vaccinations for both Peruvian citizens and legal residents aged 40-49 this weekend.

Beginning at 8 am this morning, nearly 45,000 people will be eligible to receive their first vaccination dose at 8 centers spread out across the province.

As always, bring your DNI or carnet while wearing two masks and a face shield and maintaining social distancing.